ATP Indian Wells
Surface: Outdoor Hard
The so-called Mini Major hits the tour this week as the players descend on Indian Wells, CA for the BNP Paribas Open. This is the first Masters event of 2012. There was a time when the #1 seed used this tournament as their personal playground. However, in the past five years, the top seed has only won the tournament once. That was Rafael Nadal in 2009. Novak Djokovic is the defending champion. Both Djokovic and Nadal have sterling records here. Nadal has amassed a 31-6 mark at Indian Wells, while Djokovic stands at 22-4. Roger Federer isn't far behind in win percentage at this tournament with a 33-8 record. It should be noted that Federer has failed to make the final since 2006. Let's break the draw down, I'll separate it into four quarters with the Big Four marked as the leaders in their quarters.
Djokovic Quarter
The so-called Mini Major hits the tour this week as the players descend on Indian Wells, CA for the BNP Paribas Open. This is the first Masters event of 2012. There was a time when the #1 seed used this tournament as their personal playground. However, in the past five years, the top seed has only won the tournament once. That was Rafael Nadal in 2009. Novak Djokovic is the defending champion. Both Djokovic and Nadal have sterling records here. Nadal has amassed a 31-6 mark at Indian Wells, while Djokovic stands at 22-4. Roger Federer isn't far behind in win percentage at this tournament with a 33-8 record. It should be noted that Federer has failed to make the final since 2006. Let's break the draw down, I'll separate it into four quarters with the Big Four marked as the leaders in their quarters.
Djokovic Quarter
The next highest ranked player in Djokovic's draw is 7th seeded Tomas Berdych who is on the opposite end of the quarter. For Djokovic, he'll get the 1st round bye and then face a qualifier. His first test would be in the 3rd round, potentially against Kevin Anderson. That could well be his toughest task to getting to the quarterfinals as Florian Mayer and Richard Gasquet are the other "names" in this portion of the draw. The Anderson match could be a good one, but I'm expecting Djokovic to advance there and head to the quarters with minimal hassle. The other half of the draw should be much more competitive with Berdych, Andy Roddick, Kei Nishikori and Nicolas Almagro all in as seeded players. Toss in a couple big servers like Ivo Karlovic and Sam Querrey and this portion of the draw could see its share of upsets. We could see Almagro vs. Querrey in the 2nd round. Querrey still seems less than his best as he returns from last year's injury, but Almagro could be ripe for an upset as he has played a heavy schedule and faded on his favored surface of clay this year. Nishikori could be one to watch in this portion of the draw as he will get Santiago Giraldo or Jack Sock first-up. That is going to be tricky even though it woul be a winnable match and then he could face Querrey or Almagro in the 3rd. A resurgent and perhaps confident Andy Roddick probably isn't excited about his draw that could pit him against Karlovic in his first match. Karlovic has to get past Kubot first. The good news is Roddick is 5-1 vs. Dr.Ivo, playing better in tie breakers to win many of those matches in the past. A win there likely sets up Roddick vs. Berdych in the 3rd round. Roddick generally has played well here, while Berdych has only made it to the 4th round twice in the last six years. Given Roddick's recent resurgence and his confidence booster against Federer on these courts, he could be a surprise.
Prediction: Djokovic should be keen to put his loss to Murray in Dubai behind him and his game seems suited to the Indian Wells' courts. He may have a tense match or two, but it's his quarter to take again. Upset watch for Nishikori early in this tournament. He chose to play on clay the last couple of weeks and doesn't have much of a track record at Indian Wells. Given Giraldo's improvement on hard courts, he could give the Japanese youngster a run. They played last October in Shanghai where Nishikori won a tough three setter. Also mark the first round match between Germans Matthias Bachinger and Phillip Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is the better player still, but is so inconsistent that Bachinger could steal the opener.
Roger Federer Quarter
Prediction: Djokovic should be keen to put his loss to Murray in Dubai behind him and his game seems suited to the Indian Wells' courts. He may have a tense match or two, but it's his quarter to take again. Upset watch for Nishikori early in this tournament. He chose to play on clay the last couple of weeks and doesn't have much of a track record at Indian Wells. Given Giraldo's improvement on hard courts, he could give the Japanese youngster a run. They played last October in Shanghai where Nishikori won a tough three setter. Also mark the first round match between Germans Matthias Bachinger and Phillip Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is the better player still, but is so inconsistent that Bachinger could steal the opener.
Roger Federer Quarter
Federer comes into one of his stomping grounds on a roll with two titles already in 2012. His draw though is a nightmare and his streak of failing to make finals here [2006] looks good to continue. He will likely run up against the power of Milos Raonic in round three. Should he survive there, he has Gael Monfils, Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils all in his draw as potential road blocks to the quarterfinals. I think Federer in his current form makes it to the quarters, but don't discount him struggling some. In the top part of the quarter, David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro highlight the players to watch. Ferrer is on a massive roll with two clay court titles and his draw shapes up for him to run through a couple of trouble free rounds. He has Juan Ignacio Chela as the other seed in his immediate future, something that won't scare him much. Del Potro should cruise early before a potential third round match against Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco played some nice tennis in the clay court swing, but Del Potro is probably the second hottest player on-tour behind Federer and he'll be expected to face Ferrer in the 4th round. Delpo made the semis last year and the quarters in 2009 and looks hungry. Ferrer would be an intriguing match-up against Del Potro, but the surface favors Del Potro to be in the quarters. Anyone want Federer vs. Del Potro for the fourth time? I do.
Prediction: Federer and Del Potro should get another go in the quarterfinals and Del Potro dramatically improved his performance against Del Potro from Rotterdam to Dubai. Could the 4th time be the charm? Don't be surprised if it is. Upset watch for Verdasco early. As well as he played on clay, the surface switch to hard courts could send him back into flake mode. A 2nd round match against Stebe or Sweeting will not be easy. Also expect Chela to be out early. He has the seed in front of his name, but the surface is not his best and Istomin or Lu should make his stay at Indians Wells a short one. If you're looking for a dark horse, Raonic is a good place to start. He'll be disappointed with his loss in the Memphis final to Melzer, but when his serve is on - we know he can stick with anyone.
Andy Murray Quarter
Prediction: Federer and Del Potro should get another go in the quarterfinals and Del Potro dramatically improved his performance against Del Potro from Rotterdam to Dubai. Could the 4th time be the charm? Don't be surprised if it is. Upset watch for Verdasco early. As well as he played on clay, the surface switch to hard courts could send him back into flake mode. A 2nd round match against Stebe or Sweeting will not be easy. Also expect Chela to be out early. He has the seed in front of his name, but the surface is not his best and Istomin or Lu should make his stay at Indians Wells a short one. If you're looking for a dark horse, Raonic is a good place to start. He'll be disappointed with his loss in the Memphis final to Melzer, but when his serve is on - we know he can stick with anyone.
Andy Murray Quarter
Murray should be buoyed by his run in Dubai where he had little previous success. Murray should be eager to wipe away last year's failure here in his opener to Donald Young also. Prior to that flameout, Murray had shown well at Indian Wells with a 15-6 mark all-time with a semifinals, quarterfinals and finals appearance in limited tries in this tournament. He has a nice draw in spite of the names you'll see littered in his bracket: Troicki, Simon and Wawrinka. Troicki could be up against it early with a potential 2nd rounder against Ryan Harrison. Simon and Wawrinka look to be a third round collision course where we can play who chokes first. As long as Murray is able to shake off the loss to Federer in Dubai, I see no reason he isn't at least to the quarters. On the bottom of this draw, it's a landmine of potential. Mardy Fish. John Isner. Julian Benneteau. All have the game to make a move in this draw. The problem has been consistency. Fish has had very little this season and he's tough not to fade right now. Isner has struggled to get deep in tournaments since he was annointed the second coming after his big win in Davis Cup play over Federer. His draw should be conducive to a deep run, but that's been the case for his last two tournaments without the results following in that mind set. Still, Isner's toughest match should be in the 3rd round against Monaco. Fish and Benneteau should battle it out for the spot opposite of Isner in the 4th round. This is a HUGE tournament for Fish in my opinion. He has not played well on-tour this year and could be in danger of a total free-fall if he loses early in this tournament. Fish made the final in 2008 in Indian Wells, but otherwise has been a candidate for early burnout. Tough to see him being relevant in this quarter.
Prediction: The Big Four should be represented in the semis with Murray from this quarter. I think he has the easiest draw of the top dogs to get there if he is focused. Upset watch for Mardy Fish. He has Seppi or Olivier Rochus in his first match and needs to be on-point early. I also would be less than shocked if Troicki, Wawrinka or Simon lost early. Isner has to be the "dark horse" in this quarter. His draw shapes up nice for a quarterfinal run, but will he take advantage?
Rafael Nadal Quarter
Prediction: The Big Four should be represented in the semis with Murray from this quarter. I think he has the easiest draw of the top dogs to get there if he is focused. Upset watch for Mardy Fish. He has Seppi or Olivier Rochus in his first match and needs to be on-point early. I also would be less than shocked if Troicki, Wawrinka or Simon lost early. Isner has to be the "dark horse" in this quarter. His draw shapes up nice for a quarterfinal run, but will he take advantage?
Rafael Nadal Quarter
The return of Rafa should add plenty of intrigue to this quarter of the draw that also features Tsonga, Tipsarevic and Dolgpolov. As we laid out earlier, Rafa loves this tournament with a 31-6 mark at Indian Wells. His draw should set him up to have plenty of wiggle room if he needs to refind his form. A 2nd round match potentially against Falla and then the likes of Nieminen or or Granollers to make the 4th round. Two enigmatic players will be opposite of the consistent Nadal in this portion of the draw in Feliciano Lopez and Alexandr Dolgpolov. Dolgopolov could face Donald Young in a bettor's nightmare of a match in the 2nd round. Lopez is a candidate for an early exit with Chardy or Baghdatis due to face off against him in the 2nd round. As usual, Baghdatis will be a dangerous floater and I like him to make a little noise in this tournament with a better draw than he has seen in 2012. All-in-all, Nadal should be a cinch for the quarters perhaps taking out Dolgpolov or Baghdatis to get there. Up top, Tsonga will not have an easy time advancing deep. He has Llodra or Gulbis first-up and then maybe Radek Stepanek in the 3rd round. Tsonga's record at Indian Wells is 5-5 and he has never advanced past the 4th round. Don't expect Tsonga to do a ton this week. The bottom of this portion of the draw sees Tipsarevic and Marin Cilic as the seeds. Cilic is just getting back on-tour and won't see any favors as David Nalbandian potentially looms in round two. Tipsarevic faces either Tomic or Muller, so he too will need to be ready when he starts.
Prediction: Nadal is set up for another deep run at Indian Wells. He really shouldn't face a ton of resistance in getting to the quarters. Tsonga is certainly the talent in the other half to potentially oppose him, but Tsonga seems to still be playing down a notch. That could open up the other quarterfinal spot for Tipsarevic, but don't count out a surprise run by someone like Stepanek or even Cilic who should improve this tournament. Upset watch definitely for Lopez and Dolgpolov in their first matches.
Prediction: Nadal is set up for another deep run at Indian Wells. He really shouldn't face a ton of resistance in getting to the quarters. Tsonga is certainly the talent in the other half to potentially oppose him, but Tsonga seems to still be playing down a notch. That could open up the other quarterfinal spot for Tipsarevic, but don't count out a surprise run by someone like Stepanek or even Cilic who should improve this tournament. Upset watch definitely for Lopez and Dolgpolov in their first matches.
Semifinalists: Djokovic, Del Potro, Murray, Nadal
Final: Nadal defeats Djokovic
Final: Nadal defeats Djokovic
