Sunday, February 26, 2012

ATP Delray Beach
Surface: Outdoor Hard


This is always an interesting tournament because it usual features the guys who don't feel like challenging their travel schedules and games against the big boys in Dubai. That is the case again with John Isner headlining as the top seed. This tournament marks the return of Marin Cilic who will be the #2 seed. He has been rehabbing from a knee injury suffered late last year. Viktor Troicki is the third seed and Andy Roddick rounds out the top four.

Isner was very disappointing in Memphis, falling to Jurgen Melzer in the quarterfinals. He looks out of sorts and will have to show something extra this week as expectations are high on him now and he needs to respond to the pressure each tournament. His draw isn't simple. He has Jesse Levine to open. Second up could be Ryan Sweeting or Donald Young. On the other side of the quarter, Bernard Tomic kicks off against Tommy Haas. Melzer will meet a qualifier to open. The quali pool is low on talent, so even on short rest, Melzer should be in decent shape. Tomic is another guy who has to show he's got the consistency to grind through these smaller tournaments. Haas isn't an easy draw nor is Melzer potentially in the 2nd round. Tomic looks like he could be in for another early exit. Isner has only played this tournament twice and he was upset in the 1st round last year. I think his recent suspect play plus Melzer's resurgent week in Memphis along with a lot of talent here makes this quarter pretty open. Isner at his best would take this field, but I don't think he's at his best.

Andy Roddick leads the second quarter and has 7th seeded Kevin Anderson on the other side to contend with. Roddick's free fall could continue in Florida as he's paired up against Phillipp Petzschner in his opener and would face Matthew Ebden or Denis Istomin in round two. On the bottom of the quarter, Anderson gets a qualifier to open. The other first round match-up is Garcia-Lopez and Malisse. Anderson has a workable draw to make a run again, but he disappointed last week with an early exit in Memphis in a similar set-up. With Roddick's health/mental state very questionable, this quarter as well seems ripe for some upsets. I'll go back to the well with Anderson again as I think his game is suited to these courts and his draw is easier than the top half. The dark horse here could be Petzschner. I ragged on him for being a guy with one foot in the doubles circuit, but he's found some nice runs at this point in the last couple of years in Dubai and Miami. If he beats Roddick, confidence could push him through a couple rounds. Don't discount the enigma that is Deni Istomin either.

Troicki's quarter is full of what ifs beginning with the highest seed in Troicki himself. He has Steve Darcis first-up, a winnable match, but no gimme. Gulbis and Falla are the other first rounder in that part of the quarter. The outdoor courts could give Falla a boost as he's proven a tough competitor on outdoor surfaces recently. Up top, Bogomolov is the seed. I've made my points about Bogomolov known at every turn. I think he shot his wad last year in his surprise rise and I think he's going to level off as he's already begun to do. He gets a qualifier first-up, so maybe he can get a win. Ivo Karlovic looms after that and that should be a quick end to Bogomolov's stay in Delray Beach. The good doctor made the final here in 2010 and this quarter looks like he could make some noise if Troicki falters. Don't be surprised if the doctor "is in" the semifinals.

I absolutely love the bottom quarter that features Marin Cilic as the 2nd seed, Kohlschreiber as the #5 and is littered with plenty of talent. Cilic opens against Nieminen and could be one and done as a result. Dudi Sela plays youngster Denis Kudla in the other first round match-up on bottom. That should be a good match and Kudla has some confidence right now. I could definitely see an upset there. Up top, Kohlschreiber gets the gritty Olivier Rochus first. Ivan Dodig gets Matthias Bachinger in the other first rounder. Rochus and Kohlscheiber have already met twice this season, splitting those two meetings. Kohlschreiber won on an indoor surface, Rochus on an outdoor court in Auckland. Rochus has been tough as nails this year, don't count him out of pulling another upset and getting through this quarter. I think it would be a bit much to expect Cilic to be sharp enough to get it together quick here, especially in light of who he opens with. Still, it would be a nice story if he could make a run.

Semifinalists: Melzer, Anderson, Karlovic, Rochus
Final: Karlovic over Anderson
Player to Watch: Marin Cilic
Upset Watch: Rochus over Kohlschreiber, Haas over Tomic or Petzschner over Roddick

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