ATP Sao Paulo
Surface: Indoor Clay
http://www.brasilopen.com.br/site/

The Brasil Open finds a new home in Sao Paulo after eleven years in Costa de Sauipe. It's an interesting switch because the inclimate weather in Sao Paulo [rain] is leading organizers to have this played indoors on clay, which will give it a different feel. The tournament is headlined by Nicolas Almagro, the #1 seed as a wildcard. Gilles Simon is in as the second seed with Verdasco and Bellucci rounding out the top four seeds. The most interesting "floater" in this tournament is Argentine, David Nalbandian who could meet Simon in round two.

Almagro's quarter features Carlos Berlocq as the other seed. You've got a mix of dirt ballers here with Prodon, Souza and Starace filling out the quarter. Almagro won this tournament the last two years in Costa de Sauipe and his draw is set up for him to make yet another drive for a trophy. It's hard to see past an Almagro-Berlocq meeting to decide who gets into the semifinals. Berlocq has been a very solid guy on clay over the past year, but the majority of his work has come on the Challenger level and when pressed with the best clay court guys in the game, he has mostly come up short. He played well in Vina Del Mar, so he should be in position to meet Almagro. Almagro won their only previous meeting in three sets last May.

The second quarter features the enigmatic Fernando Verdasco as the third seed. Albert Ramos is the 8th seed. Fernando Gonzalez is in this quarter as a wildcard. I wanted to note that because Fernando announced he will retire from the sport after next month's Master's event in Miami. Gonzalez long had one of the most vicious forehands on the planet and it's been a shame to see injuries rob him of most of the past two years. I don't expect much out of him here, but enjoy watching him because there won't be too many more opportunities to do so. Ramos may not even make it out of the opening round, pitted in a tough match-up against Santiago Giraldo who has beaten him twice on clay. It's hard to pencil Verdasco in for anything with how inconsistent he has become, so I think this quarter is prime to see a surprise semifinalist.

The third quarter features Juan Carlos Ferrero as the fourth seed and Thomaz Bellucci as the fourth seed. Ferrero really struggled in Davis Cup play over the weekend and draws a guy in Leonardo Mayer who could take him out in the opening round. Bellucci gets the benefit of a bye and then faces Mello or Riba. Bellucci has had a poor start to 2012 which included losing in the opening round at Vina del Mar to Del Bonis. He never played well at this event in Costa de Sauipe, but it's worth noting that he won a few clay Challengers held in Sao Paulo in the past few years. This might be a spot where he can kick start his season.

The bottom quarter sees Simon as the second seed and Albert Montanes as the seventh seed. The first question really has to be, what in the world is Simon doing here? It's not that he is a terrible clay court player [59% win rate], but it's an odd choice with the indoor hard court swing available where he would probably fare better. Nalbandian is the floater here and if he gets past Paire, would be up against Simon in the second round. Nalbandian got in some clay form over the weekend with a Davis Cup dismantling of Florian Mayer and he could carry that over into a nice run here. Montanes draws the tricky Filippo Volandri first-up. I think Montanes or Nalbandian survives this quarter and with the Davis Cup emotion still coursing in him, I'm siding with Nalbandian.

Semifinalists: Almagro, Giraldo, Bellucci, Nalbandian
Final: Almagro over Bellucci
Player to Watch: David Nalbandian
Upset Watch: Mayer over Ferrero  & Giraldo over Ramos