ATP Dubai
Surface: Outdoor Hard

The Big Four minus Rafael Nadal. That is the story line to follow this week in Dubai as we see the big boys together [mostly] for the first time in one tournament since the Australian Open. Djokovic is the top seed. Federer enters as the two, Murray the three and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as the four. Djokovic has owned this tournament and will be looking for his 4th straight title in Dubai.

Djokovic's quarter offers him little worry until the quarterfinals where he could face Janko Tipsarevic who is the other seed in this quarter. Djokovic should mow down Stebe in the opener and then faces Stakhovsky or a local wildcard in what appears to be another easy match-up. Down in Tipsarevic's portion of the draw, he gets Kunitsyn and then may find himself a tough go against Ivan Ljubicic. This quarter seems straight forward as Djokovic should cruise to the semifinals.

Andy Murray's quarter also features Tomas Berdych in what could be a little more competitive quarter. Murray opens with Berrer and then could face a resurgent Nikolay Davydenko in the 2nd round. Berdych opens against Benjamin Becker who will likely be gassed from a long week in Memphis. Lacko or Bubka would be next up. Murray hasn't done particularly well in this tournament in the past, never making it past the quarterfinals. That makes his potential 2nd rounder against Davydenko one to watch. That looks to be the only thing really standing in the way of Murray against Berdych in the quarterfinals.

Tsonga is featured in the next quarter as the #4 seed, but all eyes are likely to be on the 5th seed, Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro comes in off a title in Marseilles, but faces a double whammy with the quick turnaround and the talented Alexandr Dolgopolov in the 1st round. He will have a day off in between, but travel and adjusting to a new surface could really catch him here. Don't discount an upset right off the bat. Tsonga will also have to be on alert as he faces Marcos Baghdatis. Baghdatis retired a few weeks back in Rotterdam with an injured calf, but figures to be close to full health after ample rest. Tsonga will have to rebound from a disappointing loss to Del Potro in Marseille. The other first round matches here are Golubev vs. Marko Djokovic and Mannarino vs. Rosol. The winner of this quarter figures to come from those first round matches with Del Potro and Dolgopolov or Baghdatis and Tsonga. I think this quarter is ripe for a "suprise" or two.

Federer's quarter is set up very nicely for Federer to roll. He faces Llodra first-up. Llodra is not as effective on the outdoor hard courts and figures to be fatigued from his play in Marseille. The 2nd round would see Federer against Feliciano Lopez or Nicolas Mahut. Both could provide him a little stiffer test, but still are notches below Federer who is 29-4 all-time at this tournament. Mardy Fish is the other seed in this quarter and he'll have to shake off a poor performance in Marseille where has was taken out in his first match by a qualifier. Andreas Beck is the first rounder for Fish. Given Fish's up and down 2012, you'd have to say even Beck might have a chance depending on which version of Fish arrives in Dubai. Two guys familiar with each other will face off in the first round with Mikhail Youzhny and Richard Gasquet going toe-to-toe. Youzhny pulled out of Rotterdam with a foot problem, so his health is key here. Both guys have had some success here in the past, so they rate as dark horses and I would expect the first rounder winner between the two will be the quarterfinalist against Federer.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Berdych, Dolgopolov, Federer
Final: Djokovic over Federer
Player to Watch: Alexandr Dolgpolov
Upset Watch: Dolgopolov over Del Potro or Gasquet over Fish [2nd Round]